AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org. We’re broadcasting at the U.N. climate summit, COP30, here in the Brazilian city of Belém, the gateway to the Amazon rainforest. I’m Amy Goodman, with Nermeen Shaikh. As we broadcast, there’s a protest right behind us by the Loss and Damage Youth Coalition, where they are holding a banner that reads, “From opinion to obligation, respond to loss and damage.”

NERMEEN SHAIKH: We end today’s show with one of Brazil’s most prominent scientists, Dr. Carlos Nobre. He’s a senior researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo and co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon. He’s a lead author of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, that won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for its reports on global warming.

AMY GOODMAN: For decades, Carlos Nobre has been warning the Amazon rainforest is being pushed beyond the tipping point. The Amazon rainforest is almost as large as the contiguous United States.

Carlos Nobre, welcome to Democracy Now! It’s an honor to be in your presence. You have been warning for quite some time, and now it’s getting more serious than ever. What is the tipping point? And for a lay audience around the world, explain to us why the biome of the Amazon rainforest is so important for the world.

CARLOS NOBRE: Good morning. Thank you very much.

Yes, I’ve been working for 43 years with the Amazon. I was the first scientist, 1990, 1991, publishing a science article saying if we continue with very high deforestation, the Amazon would cross the tipping point. But that was 1990, ’91, 36 years ago. Now the Amazon is very close to the tipping point.

Why do we say that? Because from the Atlantic to Bolivia, Peru and Colombia, this is 2.5 million square kilometers. The whole forest, close to 7 million square kilometers, but this southern portion, very close to tipping point. The dry season is four to five weeks’ length here — in 45 years, one week per decade. It was three, four months, but with rain during the dry season. Now it’s four to five months, 20, 30% drier, two, three degrees warmer. And also, tree mortality has increased a lot in these areas. In the southeastern Amazon, south of where we are, the forest has become a carbon source. It’s losing more carbon than removing.

So, if we continue — deforestation is about 18%, degradation 30% — if we reach 20, 25% deforestation, global warming close to two degrees, we cross permanently the tipping point. We are going to lose up to 70% of the Amazon within 30 to 50 years. If we continue with global warming, deforestation, we reach the tipping point by 2040. So, by 27 — 2100, we’re going to lose 70% of the Amazon. We’ll release more than 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, making it impossible to maintain the global warming at 1.5 degrees. We are going to lose the highest biodiversity in the planet. So, terrible.

And also, the Amazon recycles water so well that about 45% of the water vapor that comes from the Atlantic Ocean, transported by the trade winds, goes to the south of the Amazon and feeds more than 50% of rainfall on the tropical savanna south of the Amazon, so — and also the Atlantic rainforest. So, it’s really essential. If we lose the Amazon, not only the Amazon forest will disappear, but the tropical savanna, as well.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: If you could also talk, Dr. Nobre — in addition to increasing heat and the dryness that you talked about, you’ve also said that livestock grazing is a form of ecological pollution. Now, Brazil is the world’s second-largest producer of beef. If you could talk about what the impact of cattle ranching has been on this deforestation of the Amazon?

CARLOS NOBRE: Yes, of course. I mean, 90% of the deforestation in the lowlands in the Amazon in Brazil is related to cattle ranches. And when we compute, Brazil is the only country in the world where 70% of fossil fuel emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, come from land use change, about 70% of emissions, 40% deforestation. And about 20, 25% of this comes from agriculture, but mostly for cattle ranches. Particularly, the cattle emits a lot of methane, so — all ruminants. So, we say 55% of emissions in Brazil related to livestock, you know, the deforestation for cattle ranches and also the cattle emitting methane.

So, really, we need urgently to get to zero deforestation in all Brazilian biomes, especially the Amazon, and also merging to the so-called regenerative livestock. Regenerative livestock. We have about 15% in Brazil of regenerative livestock, and very little. The regenerative livestock makes — reduces a lot emissions by livestock.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: And, you know, in Brazil, as you well know, Brazil is one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, which means the alternative that you mentioned may compensate, but presumably it would be a massive economic loss to Brazil if their agricultural production were to go down. But as you were mentioning earlier, though, there has been a commitment by countries here to work on a roadmap to get to zero deforestation by 2030. So there is an agreement there, whereas there is not a majority of countries signing up to the roadmap to phasing out fossil fuels. So, if you could just talk about, I mean, the countries that are, in part, dependent on agricultural exports, what would it mean to diminish cattle ranching? And, I mean, you’ve become, in fact, vegetarian as a result of this.

CARLOS NOBRE: Oh, listen, mostly livestock average productivity is very low. Brazil has about 1.5 heads of cattle per hectare. This is very little. Brazil has about 3.2 million square kilometers, mostly livestock and also agricultural. So, regenerative livestock will have three to five heads of cattle per hectare, reduce emission, and also the regenerative agriculture and livestock is much more resilient to the climate extremes. For instance, last year, Brazil had a record-breaking drought in the Amazon tropical savanna, Cerrado, and a record-breaking number — decline of agricultural productivity. So, therefore, Brazil can continue being a tremendous high producer of meat, agriculture, soy grains, using not 3.2 million square kilometers, but maximum 2 million square kilometers.

AMY GOODMAN: I want to ask you a question about climate science. You have said that it’s a mystery to you, the country which invested the most in climate science, a country with the largest number of climate scientists and very few who deny climate change, which contributed the most to the IPCC report — how is it possible this country elected a climate denier? And we’re talking about the United States. But talk about the significance of the billions of dollars being removed from science research in the United States, and the effect that has all over the world?

CARLOS NOBRE: Well, that’s a very good question, because, in fact, I mean, I create a name, because all tipping points that we know in the climate, more than 20, they are all associated with ecological, biological, hydrological, ocean-related tipping points. But I’m thinking how the world, in democracies, we are creating a, quote, quote-unquote, “a social/political tipping point,” which is — it’s not only in the U.S. In many countries in the world, democracies, we are electing more and more populist politicians — U.S. President Trump, Argentina President Milei. Brazil elected a former president, Bolsonaro, totally climate denier. Deforestation increased a lot in those four years. That’s happening all over the planet. So, this is a — I even gave a name in the West. I said this social/political tipping point is the “trumping point.” Why we are, in democracies — as you mentioned, the country with the top science on climate change, U.S., always, for decades — why U.S. democracy electors are electing a climate-denier president? This is very serious.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: And you’ve said, Dr. Nobre — I mean, it’s remarkable, as you said, with these right-wing governments, being led in part by Donald Trump, the fact that this roadmap to deforestation was agreed. You’ve said that COP30 is a critical meeting of — a critical climate summit. Explain why, and what you hope is going to come out of this. It’s formally concluding tomorrow, but it regularly goes beyond that date.

CARLOS NOBRE: Yes, that’s a very good point, because all of us scientists, we say this COP30 has to be very important, I mean, as important as Paris Agreement, as important as COP26, when all countries agree in reducing emissions. But now we have to accelerate reducing emissions.

Yesterday, we, the Planetary Science Pavilion people, we hand-delivered our declaration to all negotiators, and I hand-delivered to President Lula, as well. We say, in addition to zero deforestation in all biomes, tropical forests by 2030, we have to accelerate reducing of emission by fossil fuels. We say, ideally, zero fossil fuel emissions by 2040, no longer than 2045 — no questions, because the temperature is reaching 1.5 degrees within five to 10 years permanently. If we only get to net-zero emissions by 2050, we may reach two degrees and even more. It will be a tragedy, an ecocide for the planet.

And when I presented this document to President Lula, he said also — four times, he said — I was in a meeting with him. He said, “This has to be the most important COP of all cops.” Let’s hope, in two days now, countries will agree not only zero deforestation in all tropical forests by 2030, but zero fossil fuel emissions —

AMY GOODMAN: Ten seconds.

CARLOS NOBRE: — by 2040.

AMY GOODMAN: We want to thank you so much, Carlos Nobre, leading Brazilian scientist, world-renowned climatologist, senior researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo, co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, where we are right now. We’re in Belém, the gateway of the Amazon. I’m Amy Goodman, with Nermeen Shaikh.