A new USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll predicts that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would defeat President Bush if the election were held today. Kerry defeated Bush 53% to 46%, a lead outside the poll’s margin of error. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards edged Bush at 49%-48%, a statistical tie. Bush bested former Vermont governor Howard Dean by 7 points and retired Army general Wesley Clark by 3.

Meanwhile, Bush’s job-approval rating dipped below 50% for the first time in his presidency. His approval ratings for handling the economy, Iraq and health care all fell to near-record lows. Support for going to war with Iraq also dipped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. The proportion of Americans who were certain that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or was trying to develop them before the war fell dramatically. More than four in 10 said the administration deliberately misled the public about whether Iraq had the banned weapons.