AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org. I’m Amy Goodman, with Juan González.

The U.S. government appears to be headed to a shutdown at midnight, after President Trump and Democratic leaders failed to reach an agreement Monday on a spending bill. Vice President JD Vance spoke to reporters after the White House meeting.

VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE: I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing. I hope they change their mind.

AMY GOODMAN: Democrats are looking to extend subsidies for the Affordable Care Act and reverse cuts to Medicaid and other healthcare programs that were implemented by the tax and spending bill passed earlier this year. Here’s House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

MINORITY LEADER HAKEEM JEFFRIES: They’re telling the American people what they’re all about: largest cut to Medicaid in American history, ripping food from the mouths of hungry children, hungry seniors and hungry veterans. And they did all of that to reward their billionaire donors with massive tax breaks. That’s what Republicans have been all about in terms of governing this year. And we’re not down with any of that.

AMY GOODMAN: For more, we’re joined by David Dayen, executive editor of The American Prospect. His new piece, “The Government Has Been Shut Down for Months.”

David, welcome back to Democracy Now! If you can just explain what’s going down right now and if you think the shutdown will happen at midnight, and what it all means?

DAVID DAYEN: I mean, it seems pretty clear that the shutdown is going to happen at midnight. And we’ve had a situation in the last several months where hundreds of billions of dollars has been withheld from thousands of programs all over the country. About 12% of the federal workforce has been fired. The president is all too happy to fund programs he likes and defund programs he doesn’t like. And that’s the textbook definition of a government shutdown. And we’ve been in that state since the inauguration, practically, and now we’re just going to admit it.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, David, what about the possibility that the Trump administration has held out that if there is a shutdown, it will proceed then to lay off permanently more federal workers?

DAVID DAYEN: This is laughable. I mean, they’ve already laid off a number of federal workers. They’ve attempted reductions in force all across the federal government. Federal courts have said they have no legitimacy or legality to do that. That’s just as true in a government shutdown as it is not in a government shutdown. The lifeline of the Supreme Court allowing them to move forward with some of these plans would still be in evidence, so it’s hard to say what’s legal or legitimate at all in this country anymore. But there’s no additional authority to do mass layoffs that is conferred by a government shutdown. If Russ Vought wants to fire a bunch of people, he’s probably going to do it, and he’s just using the shutdown as a fig leaf in an attempt to intimidate Democrats to following through on Republican demands.

AMY GOODMAN: David, can you explain what the Democrats are asking for when it comes to the Obamacare and also reversing Medicaid cuts? How many millions of Americans are going to experience the loss of insurance and healthcare, or the reduction of it, or it being increased in cost?

DAVID DAYEN: Yeah, it’s a lot. They want to extend subsidies that were enhanced originally under the American Rescue Plan for the Affordable Care Act exchanges. If those aren’t — those expire at the end of the year, and if they are not moved forward, you’ll see an increase in premiums of about 75% at least, on average. You’re talking about probably 4 million people losing their health insurance coverage. The Medicaid cuts would be another some — something like 10 million people who would be losing their coverage. So, it’s a big deal.

The other part that Democrats are asking for is the idea that if they pass a budget resolution, that everything in that resolution actually gets spent. It’s folly to continue to make a deal with someone that tells you they’re not going to honor the deal. And that is what has been happening with respect to Donald Trump over the last several months. And so, there are some safeguards in place in the Democratic counteroffer to say you can’t rescind spending that we appropriate, you can’t impound spending that we — the government has said is supposed to be spent.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Well, given those Democratic demands — we’ve had so many of these budget — excuse me — shutdown crises in the past. How do you see this being resolved? And what would be the makings of an agreement that would be able to come out? And how long do you think this might last?

DAVID DAYEN: Well, it’s probably going to be protracted. The last time there was a shutdown when Donald Trump was the president, it lasted 35 days. That was the longest shutdown in American history. I see no reason why this wouldn’t go at least to those lengths. The two sides seem to be very far apart. Republicans just want to sort of pound Democrats into submission on this and offer them really nothing, while Democrats are asking to prevent the loss of healthcare for 15 million people and an actual honoring of whatever budget agreement is made.

So, it’s hard to see where we go from here. Typically, you see that in shutdowns, the party that’s asking for something usually doesn’t get it, frankly. However, polling has shown that Republicans are being blamed for this shutdown. And that’s also been true throughout history, whether Republicans were in charge of the presidency or not. So, it’s a bit unclear to me how the politics are going to play out, but I think what’s clear is that we’re now in a position where people are paying attention to the real crisis that has been going on with government funding over the last several months, and hopefully people will understand who is responsible for that.

AMY GOODMAN: Finally, David Dayen, as we speak, hundreds of admirals and generals have been called in from all over the world for this unprecedented, what some are calling a MAGA rally at Quantico, called by Defense Secretary Hegseth, that now apparently Trump is going to address. I don’t know if they got roundtrip tickets, but if they didn’t, will they be able to go back home, number one? But most importantly, we’re moving into a segment now on ICE and the federalizing National Guard. Will this mean that ICE gets less money, that Trump will not be able to use them as freely, these agents, to move into cities?

DAVID DAYEN: No, the way that shutdowns work is so-called essential personnel are allowed to continue with their job, whether they’re paid or not. Then they get back pay when the shutdown is resolved. So, the president has some latitude to allow essential work to continue to be performed. And obviously, this president is going to say that the continued abduction of people from American streets is essential. So, I don’t see any letup there or with the Department of Defense, quite frankly, which is using the money that they got in the reconciliation agreement as a kind of slush fund. There was $150 billion of a top-off, and that money is likely to be used to cover whatever expenses are needed during the shutdown.

AMY GOODMAN: David Dayen, we want to thank you for being with us, executive editor of The American Prospect. We’ll link to your piece, “The Government Has Been Shut Down for Months.”

Next up, to President Trump’s threat to send federal troops to Portland, Oregon, and his request for a hundred troops to be deployed to Chicago amidst a widening immigration crackdown. Back in 20 seconds.

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AMY GOODMAN: La Santa Cecilia, performing a rendition of “Strawberry Fields Forever” in our Democracy Now! studio.