AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, democracynow.org, The War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has entered its fifth week. President Trump told the Financial Times Sunday his preference would be to, quote, “take the oil” and seize Iran’s export hub, Kharg Island. Shortly after his comments, the price of oil surged to $116 a barrel.

Separately, President Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One and boasted about regime change in Iran.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Regime change, if you look, already, because the one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people.

AMY GOODMAN: Trump’s comments come as 3,500 U.S. troops began arriving in the region on Friday. The Washington Post reported Saturday night that the Pentagon was preparing for weeks of potential ground conflict in Iran. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal is reporting President Trump is considering a military operation to extract nearly a thousand pounds of uranium from Iran.

According to a consortium of human rights groups in Iran, nearly 1,500 Iranian civilians, at least 217 children, have been killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes. CENTCOM says more than 300 U.S. troops have been wounded; 13 U.S. service members have died.

For more, we’re joined by Ali Kadivar, fellow at the Radcliffe Institute at Harvard University, associate professor of sociology and international studies at Boston College. He grew up in Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, was active in the student movement at the University of Tehran. He joins us now from Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Professor Kadivar, you have brothers still in Iran. Can you talk about whether you can reach them, whether the internet is still down, and what is happening on the ground in Iran right now?

ALI KADIVAR: Yes, I have brothers in Tehran and elsewhere in Iran. We cannot directly reach them. The Iranian government has shut down internet and restricted phone communication. People in Iran can call outside, and if they can buy very expensive VPNs and filters, then they can momentarily connect to internet. So, the communication with Iran for most people has been one way. It’s people in Iran that communicate.

AMY GOODMAN: I mean —

ALI KADIVAR: People are, from what I hear — yeah.

AMY GOODMAN: No, go ahead.

ALI KADIVAR: Yeah, I think there are different groups of people. Many people are scared of the war. They are waiting for the war to — for the war to end. On the other hand, government has been mobilizing its supporters very actively. Iranian government has been one of the type of political regimes that have relied on mobilizing their supporters in various occasions. Under external pressure, the level of mobilization has been higher. For example, under sanctions and under wartime condition, it has been highest, both during the Iran-Iraq War and under the current war, especially that it started with killing of Khamenei, and he has many supporters. So, government supporters have been in main squares. They have been marching in streets, chanting slogans. So, public spaces have been very much just in control of government and their people.

AMY GOODMAN: This must bring back memories. As you sit here in the United States, you’re looking at the bombs over Tehran and other cities. You grew up under bombs. In that case, it was the Iran-Iraq War — right? — with the U.S. supporting both sides, I guess you could say.

ALI KADIVAR: Yeah.

AMY GOODMAN: Explain the history for people who aren’t familiar with the history of Iran.

ALI KADIVAR: So, looking at Iran’s modern history, we have had a few different issues, major issues of Iranian politics, that have been interwoven. So, for the topic of our conversation, one recurring issue is imperial wars and intervention over Iran. So, starting in early 19th century, we have the wars of Iran and Russia, that Iran lost territory, then with Britain, when Afghanistan became independent. Iran was neutral in World War I and II. It was occupied in both times. Head of state was removed in 1941, Reza Shah. But then we had the 1953 coup, sponsored by United States and U.K. And then, as you mentioned, Iran-Iraq War, which was a regional war, but both sides received support — I think Iraq received more intelligence and support. And these wars have shaped Iranian political development. From early on, one question for Iranians was that: Why are we, over and over, become the subject of military aggressions by great powers, by imperial powers? And they have been looking for solutions for that.

On the other hand, we have had these ongoing issues about defining political order in Iran. We have had the Constitutional Revolution. We have had the ongoing democracy movement in Iran, various social movements and protests in which Iranians have demanded opening political freedom and democracy. When we look at how these wars have impacted the political order, going back to the Iran-Iraq War again, as your question mentioned, in general, the wars have not been conducive to democratic breakthroughs. Quite the opposite, they have resulted in more militarized authoritarianism, more closed political space in Iran.

When Iran-Iraq War started, when Iraq invaded Iran, we still had a nationalist president, Abolhassan Banisadr, where nationalists and other opponents of Islamists within the parliament, Iranian civil society and political society was highly mobilized. But the war presented an opportunity for Islamists to basically consolidate power. They opposed all of their opponents to be working or being on the side of the enemies. They escalated repression and violence against their opponents. And within one or two years within Iran-Iraq War, we see that the political scene completely changes as a result of government repression. They basically push out — pushed out and sidelined all rival factions. They demobilized Iranian civil society with using different forms of repression.

And currently we are observing the same situation in Iran. We have the internet shutdown, which basically disconnects Iranian citizens from each other. Iranian public sphere, which was operating on internet, for now, that just doesn’t exist anymore. The government has continued to execute political prisoners. They are still arresting activists and journalists. So, the current condition is very repressive. And with the killings of the different individuals in the leadership, more hard-line and more hawkish individuals have been replaced. So we are seeing again what the war is doing to Iran’s political order. And as President Trump mentioned, this is not the type of regime change we initially talk about in the U.S., but there has been political change within the Islamic Republic. Islamic Republic has changed to various directions in its 47 years of life. Sometimes it has opened up, sometimes has become more repressive and more closed. And this is the latter, when the political situation has become darker, more repressive, and the government has become more hawkish and hard-line.

AMY GOODMAN: The president of the United States, Trump, has floated for a few days Iran has given us a present. And now, speaking on Air Force One, he explained what it was.

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They gave us, I think out of a sign of respect, 20 boats of oil, big, big boats of oil, going through the Hormuz Strait. And that’s taking place starting tomorrow morning. … I would only say that we’re doing extremely well in that negotiation, but you never know where they’re at, because we negotiate with them, and then we always have to blow them up.

AMY GOODMAN: The Strait of Hormuz, which apparently Trump and his supporters are floating should be renamed the “Strait of Trump.” I wanted to ask your response to this, and also the significance of these thousands of paratroopers, U.S. paratroopers, being moved into the area, the speculation either a all-out land invasion or a threat of one or taking over Kharg Island, and what that means, Professor Kadivar.

ALI KADIVAR: So, Iran has used the strategy of asymmetric warfare. This is something that Iranians have been working on for a long time, since Iran-Iraq War. They have been anticipating an American attack on Iranian soil, and they understood that they cannot match America’s military power. But they have used various tactics, horizontal escalation by attacking American bases in the Gulf region. That’s been part of it. The other part is to use economic pressure by basically closing the Strait of Hormuz. It has affected the oil and gas market, basically energy market, and this has brought serious pressure on the United States.

And that is why we see this type of inconsistent messaging from President Trump that Iran did not allow many ships to go through. I think there were eight or 10, as he mentioned. This is a very small fraction of the ships and oil and gas that regularly, in peacetime, has been going through the Strait of Hormuz. So, this shows that the pressure that Iranians have developed through the Strait of Hormuz has worked. And when we again look at the previous records of Iran has fought in 19th and 20th, 21st century, in terms of pressure they have inflicted on the adversary, these are the most — this is the most effective war, in terms of offense, that Iran has fought.

On the other hand, because of the destructive power of both Israel and the U.S., the level of, I think, damage that has gone on Iran is also unprecedented. Even though the war with Iraq went eight years, I don’t think Iran has been in a war with adversaries that have created this level of damage on not just military targets, but many civilian infrastructure — schools, universities, factories, hospitals and many thousands of residential buildings.

AMY GOODMAN: Did you know about Kharg Island when you lived in Iran? I mean, the focus on this island in the Persian Gulf and its significance for Iran?

ALI KADIVAR: Yeah, we have — yeah, we know about Kharg Island. But like everyone else, we have also — I have also learned more about its strategic importance.

In terms of the land invasion, yes, U.S. has troops there. They are sending more troops. It is not — the United States currently does not have enough troops for a full land invasion of Iran. They probably might try some limited invasion, as you said, Kharg Island or the Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. And they might have some successes in terms of few days of capturing the place.

But I think it will put American soldiers in the way of harm. Iran would have — they can attack them with drones, with artillery. If it comes — if U.S. invades the mainland in Iran, they will be dealing with Iranian army. I don’t think United States will have an easy time, just maybe a few first days they can announce success. Trump can do that. But it will just — the escalation, I think, will just expand the mess that United States is dealing with now. I don’t think it will provide an off-ramp. It would just make the situation more complicated for the U.S.

AMY GOODMAN: Professor Kadivar, I wanted to repeat Trump’s statement that we just played. “We negotiate with them, and then we always have to blow them up.” Your response?

ALI KADIVAR: It just shows that United States is not a reliable interlocutor, that you cannot trust them when you negotiate with them. That is, I think, the clear message that Trump is sending. And it puts United States in comparison with other great powers at the moment. I think China is looking like a more rational, at least, if not benevolent, but more rational superpower versus the United States, which would matter for the changing global order, because this war is a defining moment, not just for the Middle East, but, I think, for the whole global order.

AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about the significance right now of Pakistan being the moderator or the mediator between Iran and the U.S.? Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey convened Sunday in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, for further discussions aimed at ending the war. The United States, Israel and Iran were not part of the talks. It was unclear whether any progress was made. Your thoughts on Pakistan?

ALI KADIVAR: I mean, I think it’s important that these regional neighbors or powers are trying to mediate. I think eventually some sort of settlement or deal should emerge from this, when different — Iran and the U.S. can agree on some terms. It doesn’t look like that, for that to be the case at the moment. But some argue that more powerful actors, such as Russia or China, might have to mediate here to provide some guarantees, and maybe Pakistan or Turkey or Egypt may not be powerful enough to give guarantees to bring both parties to an agreement or compromise.

AMY GOODMAN: I wanted to get your response to the latest Trump post, that just came in as we were speaking, on Truth Social. He writes, “Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately 'Open for Business,' we will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet 'touched.'” Professor?

ALI KADIVAR: So, these are all war crimes, and this is American president threatening war crimes over and over publicly. So, that’s a first point.

Second is that he has been inconsistent. This is because this war has — this is a war of choice and aggression for the United States, unlike Iran, that is fighting a war of existential threat. And the war has not been going according to maybe its main objectives, even though the objectives have been unclear. So, as a result, we see President Trump and other American officials being highly inconsistent talking about objectives of the war and ending the war on different days.

But even if Trump does all of this, which will be a catastrophe for people of Iran, it will raise the price of oil a lot further. If U.S. is dealing with some problems in the energy market, this will escalate and expand problems in the energy market and for global economy. Iran has threatened to retaliate, and they have showed that they have the capability of doing this. So, they would, I think, attack energy plants, electricity plants, oil plants, oil fields all over the Gulf region and in Israel, which, again, increases the price of oil a lot more. So we would be looking in a price of oil over $200, which many are warning even the current level could lead to the global recession, but even in that case, much more likely to have global recession. So, I don’t think that United States has viable options for escalation without increasing the cost for itself. So, this is not a clear path forward, what Trump is talking about.

AMY GOODMAN: My last question, Ali Kadivar. Here you are, an Iranian living in the United States, which is waging war on your country, Iran. You run a Substack called Popular Politics. As you look at the media in the United States, what do you think the media gets most wrong? What do you think people most misunderstand, whether we’re talking about your students at Boston College or your work as a fellow at Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University? What should we understand, and what do we get wrong?

ALI KADIVAR: One thing is that for years Iran has been demonized in American media. Iran has been presented as a threat, as evil, as menace, as the only source of instability in the Middle East — which it is true, Iran has been destabilizing, done destabilizing actions in the region. But the instability started a long time before the Iranian Revolution. Iran is just part of the environment it has been born in. United States has even more destabilized, with Iraq War, Afghanistan War, Israel with its genocide, Saudi Arabia with bombing Yemen, UAE with having a hand in the civil war in UAE. So, there are problems of political violence and military intervention in the region, but this has to be all understood together. This type of picture that everyone is doing fine and we are good people, and Iran is the bad guy who’s doing all the bad things, it’s just very simplistic. It just — it results to this current situation that United States has got itself into a war and doesn’t know how to get out of it. So, that is one, to understand Iran with all of its complexity, to see the struggles of Iranian people for freedom, for dignity, for a better life. And as I mentioned, this type of military intervention has led to much smaller space for political activity and activism in Iran.

The other part is this, that even if the media doesn’t like Iran here and demonize it and present it in very negative terms, it also does not have a good understanding of how the system works, how the institutions work, how the society works, which resulted in the type of strategy we saw from the United States. They thought that decapitation or killing the leader would lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic within one day or two days or one week. And I think this type of short-term plans to do this type of rapid, massive, magical transformation in Iran shows that there is a lack of understanding of how political institution and Iranian society works. So, we cannot — we don’t have a good understanding to make realistic policy and to also understand the mindset of Iranians in Iranian society, in the regime. What are the imperatives of Iran? What are the security issues? What are the developmental issues? What are the questions about democracy that Iranians are dealing with? So, we have been tending — we have created a picture that is convenient for us for the type of political strategies, such as going to war and sanctions, that we are comfortable with. We have — instead of understanding Iran and designing policy and strategy based on that, we have decided on strategies and then created a picture of Iran that fits into that strategy.

AMY GOODMAN: Ali Kadivar, we thank you so much for being with us, fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University, associate professor of sociology and international studies at Boston College. He grew up in Iran during the Iran-Iraq War, was active in the student movement at the University of Tehran. His Substack is titled Popular Politics, Unbound. To see Part 1 of our discussion, go to democracynow.org. I’m Amy Goodman. Thanks so much for joining us.